“Hurricane season is almost upon us,” says old Eladio with a certain air of concern. His house, on Havana’s west coast, has withstood several meteorological events; some stronger than others. “But the roof isn’t the same anymore; many years of struggling with storms.”
A smile tries to spread across the face of this down-and-out septuagenarian. Then he looks down at his hands, marked by long, hard days as a stevedore.
“Let time not be mistaken, I can still break its bad instincts if it wants to mess with my business!” We laugh together at this joke, which, for Gladys, his wife, is more of a given. Listening to them, I imagine how many times nature has challenged them in almost half a century of life together.
Trying to visualize their strength, and after accepting a “small cup of freshly brewed coffee,” I try to calm the “hurricane-like” anxieties of this friendly couple. However, I barely manage to convince them when I tell them about the forecasts recently announced by Dr. José Rubiera.
From his YouTube channel “El tiempo en el Caribe,” the prestigious Cuban meteorologist and vice president of the World Meteorological Organization’s Hurricane Committee confirmed that the upcoming 2025 hurricane season—from June 1 to November 30—will not only be very active but also above normal.
This is predicted by global organizations, including those in Cuba, responsible for deciphering meteorological events in the Caribbean, the Atlantic, and the Gulf of Mexico.
Although the conglomerate of models generally predicts a lower number of tropical storms than those that occurred in 2024, they all agree that activity will exceed the historical average, which is usually 14 storms and seven hurricanes; three of them of high-intensity.
This season could even generate four hurricanes of that category, Rubiera explained, referring to the estimates.
In describing some of the forecasts, the hurricane specialist at the National Forecast Center of the Institute of Meteorology took into account those formulated by experts from Cuba, the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, and the United States National Hurricane Center.
For Cubans, the forecast is expected to be around 15 tropical storms and eight hurricanes; according to the Europeans, it will be 14 and seven. Meanwhile, North Americans, unlike their colleagues, predict between 13 and 19 storms and six to nine hurricanes, of which between three and five could reach high intensity.
Aside from these predictions, Dr. Rubiera, based on his vast experience and accurate forecasts, expands his arguments by recommending equanimity in the face of the forecasts.
“The important thing here, above all, is to emphasize that no one, absolutely no one, knows where a tropical cyclone will pass so far in advance,” he clarifies, while insisting on a wise warning:
“It’s important to be prepared, but without alarm. The best course of action would be to wait for the formation of a tropical phenomenon and for the appropriate agencies to make forecasts of its possible trajectory and intensity.
“It’s at that moment that the people who are likely to be affected should pay attention to the information from each country’s official meteorological services and their spokespersons.”
Rubiera’s words are well-learned by the inhabitants of this island, who have plenty of inventiveness and ingenuity. This is reminiscent of the Creole saying “neither before nor after childbirth, but during childbirth.”
However, there are many occasions when reality transcends any human effort when it comes to dodging nature’s hard blows.
Eladio and Gladys know this well. The ferocious onslaught of the so-called Storm of the Century or Hurricane Charley (which struck western Havana with intense rains and wind gusts exceeding 200 km/h).
The magnitude of these systems has marked their recent existence. “With Charley, the walls of this house shook, we don’t know if from fear or from the chilling intensity of the winds,” they recall, half-jokingly and with some suspicion. Other interesting data
During the presentation on his YouTube channel, Dr. Rubiera shared several interesting data points. All of them support the reliability of the models, which describe the upcoming 2025 hurricane season as “very active.”
For the forecasts, they focused on “general oceanic and atmospheric conditions that can influence our entire broad geographic area, spanning Africa, the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico. Even the Eastern Pacific Ocean, due to the location of the ENSO Neutral event, which will indeed have an influence,” he explained.
When listing the factors that decisively influence hurricane activity, the specialist first highlighted sea temperature, which becomes an essential fuel for generating tropical storms.
While temperatures are very high along the coasts of Central America and from central Mexico southward along the Pacific coast, fortunately this is not the case in the areas where cyclones form (East West Africa), which are still somewhat cold, Rubiera noted.
On the other hand, he noted as an anomaly the very warm water observed in the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea.
“Secondly, the state of the ENSO event (a contraction of El Niño, La Niña, or Neutral) will influence this. Throughout the presence of El Niño, cyclonic activity tends to decrease; although if the water temperature is very warm, it can overwhelm it, as has already occurred.”
Regarding these events, the scientist argued that while there’s a high incidence of hurricanes in the Atlantic during La Niña period, in Neutral years the occurrence is slightly lower. “That is, it could be an active year, but not as much as with La Niña.”
Currently, “there’s a high probability that the Neutral phenomenon will accompany most of the season and extend into August, September, and part of October,” he emphasized.
Similarly, he specified that from the October-November-December quarter, La Niña is expected to increase its influence slightly. However, the possibility of Neutral conditions cannot be ruled out either. Ultimately, the presence of either will lead to an active season, he emphasized.
The evidence supporting dynamic cyclonic activity in our geographic area in 2025 is clear. Prestigious meteorological services have already warned.
Certainly, Cubans like Eladio and Gladys know very well that adjusting their precautions won’t always guarantee a successful outcome from adverse weather conditions.
“But what shouldn’t happen is for a hurricane to catch us half-dealing. At least in my house, we’ll never put a ‘good face on bad weather,'” says old Eladio, his loud, clear laugh sounding like a mantra on the hot May afternoon.
